Growing demand for electricity means that generating capacity
is moving up the priority list at a rate of knots. It’s not just about electric
vehicles – although they represent a growing burden on the UK’s electricity capacity
– but also about server farms to power rapidly-expanding artificial intelligence
(AI) applications and the increased digitalisation of longer, larger and more
globe-spanning supply chains.
Oh, and don’t forget straightforward IT. Elon Musk’s Starlink
satellites may be powered by the Sun but the mobile phones, laptops and
entertainment channels it serves have to rely on Earthbound electrical sources.
But the biggest increase in demand will come from EVs. Currently, around 40% of all the UK’s imports of oil go to power transportation, from small cars to CrossCountry diesel trailway trains and taking in heavy goods vehicles along the way.
Image: Tesla Model Y upgrade concept
The Sun is shining - but can it shine hard enough?
Sunsave Energy, quoting the Climate Change Committee, claims
that electricity consumption in the UK increase by 50% by 2035, driven by EVs
and the replacement of gas, oil and coal-burning heating systems with heat
pumps.[1]
Sunsave Energy has skin in the game: it is a supplier of
solar panels and its proposal to meet this soaring demand is, unsurprisingly,
based on far wider deployment of solar panels, along with heat pumps and
battery storage. Be that as it may, it is very much on the money when it points out that the last
time the UK saw demand for electricity rise by 50%, in the post-War years, it
took 17 years - and generating capacity was built to meet and exceed that rising demand. We now have 10 years.
The UK’s Department for Energy Security and Net Zero forecasts
something similar and it has a touching faith in the ability of renewables to
meet this soaring demand. It forecasts that renewable generation will exceed
300TeraWatts (TWh) by 2033 – and will then fall.
What will replace it? According to its chart on page 24 of
its 2023 Report[2]:
Net imports and Natural Gas.
Yes, you read that correctly: Natural Gas. Not only will it
not be phased out, gas-powered generation will bottom out in 2030, at
approximately 40TWh and will then start to rise, a little. Nuclear will bottom
out at 45TWh in 2029 and then increase, from 2035, reaching 55-60TWH by 2040.
No wonder Ed Milliband is keen to pave the countryside – and lakes – with solar panels. The race is on and the government’s faith in the ability of renewables to not only fill the gap left by coal, oil and natural gas but to effectively double the capacity they had in 2023 would be quite touching, were it not for extremely serious real-world implications.
Photo: Ed Milliband, Secretary of State for Energy and Net Zero
An economy without sufficient power to run its commercial
activities, let alone schools, hospitals and homes, will not function.
Very few people – of those who remember the reality, anyway –
want to go back to coal-fired electricity generation, although Lee Anderson MP
(Reform) had a point when he said it is madness to import energy – and finished
manufactured goods – from across the world when there are energy sources in
abundance in and around the UK.
No escape from Reality
The reality is that an energy crunch is looming and is doing so at a rate of knots. It is also
a reality that carbon-producing energy generation is unacceptable. It would
probably be more than acceptable if lights started going out but we are not yet
at that point. Not quite and it could be avoided if action is taken now.
I mean: now. No delays, no prevarication, no committees of enquiry: now.
The most certain way of delivering a low-carbon/Net Zero
future is by means of the mighty atom.
Nuclear power remains a significant global energy source. Around
440 reactors, in 32 countries worldwide, provide over 10% of the world's
electricity. Around 50 new large reactors under construction and many more
planned, primarily in Asia.
Other countries seem to be embracing nuclear and delivering
powerful new reactors. Why is the UK struggling?
Public opinion. There was a sustained campaign against nuclear power in the UK and Germany, in particular, for years before the Fukushima earthquake and subsequent nuclear power plant disaster.
Fukushima was nowhere near as dangerous as Chernobyl but it gave the world a big fright. Germany shut down all its nuclear power plants; the Green Party seemed to have won. The UK didn’t shut down power plants – indeed, it extended the life of some – but plans for future new plants were put on hold, then shelved, for a lost, mourned decade.
Image: A blast from the past
The prospect of being hanged in the morning concentrates the
mind wonderfully and the establishment and Government - both elected and
permanent – seem to be waking up to the reality that the road the can was being
kicked down has turned out to be a cul-de-sac. Nuclear is back on the menu but feet
are still being dragged, feasibility studies are still the order of the day and
the hope still seems to be that, Micawber-like, ‘something will turn up’.
No, it won't. Not unless we make it.
There are several nuclear opportunities, which I will lay out in the next instalment.
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